Friday, November 2, 2007

Let's Make a Deal - Week 9

This week the NFL takes a week off to play the Super Bowl about three months early. I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the Patriots are playing the Colts this week! ESPN is excited! The fans are excited! Bridget Moynahan is excited! But the other teams playing this week…not so excited. Last week, maybe it was beginner’s luck, but each of us were over .500 vs. the spread. The Squarre was an astounding 11-2 against the spread. That’s a lot of profit in Las Vegas, Nevada. This week, we do our best to make some more cash. And we’re going to have to because all this traveling to Vegas is going to be expensive.






Cardinals (+3.5) at Buccaneers

Arizona comes off a bye, while Tampa comes off a tough, one point loss to Jacksonville. The Bucs defense held Jacksonville's offense to only 233 yards total. However, it is hard to pass up the power of the bye. It will be a battle between a strong Cardinals offense and a strong Bucs defense. The game really is a toss up, with Vegas saying Tampa is only +.5 better than Arizona on a neutral field.

  • AB - Bucs
  • Eastwood - Bucs
  • Squarre - Bucs
  • P-Mizz - Cardinals
Panthers (+4) at Titans
Another tough game between two seemingly evenly matched teams. Neither of these teams have a lot to brag about offensively, but do possess stout defenses. I'm very skeptical of what Carolina can do with the ball, especially having an injured Steve Smith and David Carr at quarterback. They only scored 7 against Indy last week. Tennessee has Vince Young back another week, and they are in Nashville, where they played the Colts to within 2 earlier this year.
  • AB - Titans
  • Eastwood - Titans
  • Squarre - Panthers
  • P-Mizz - Titans
Bengals (-1) at Bills
The most disappointing team in the league against a team that is somewhat a surprise. The Bengals haven't been able to close out close games, and have been dominated in losses to New England and Pittsburgh, while the Bills have struggled mightily with injuries, and turn to JP Losman again this week. Look for he and Lee Evans to have a big day against a horrendous Cincy secondary, and this game will be a close one. Take the road dog.
  • AB - Bengals
  • Eastwood - Bengals
  • Squarre – Bengals
  • P-Mizz - Bengals
Broncos (+3) at Lions
This is definitely a case of which team will show up. Both these teams have played games well(Lions) or at least tight(Broncos), but they have also gotten blown out a few times. Travis Henry practiced on Thursday, so he should play this week. Still I am going to have to go with the at home Lions who are a little healthier. Although John Kitna looks like he has let himself go (see above photo).

  • AB - Lions
  • Eastwood - Lions
  • Squarre - Broncos
  • P-Mizz - Broncos

Packers (+2.5) at Chiefs
Both teams are playing well right now. KC has picked it up after a slow start relying on their strong D. Deshawn Wynn is out for the season for Green Bay, but Ryan Grant played well for the Pack against the Broncos last Monday. Vegas is pretty much throwing their arms up in the air giving Green Bay 2.5 at the great home field advantage that is Arrowhead.

  • AB - Packers
  • Eastwood - Chiefs
  • Squarre - Packers
  • P-Mizz - Packers

Jaguars (-3.5) at Saints
The Saints are finally starting to play better after a horrendous start. No one was caught off guard like last year. Playing "better" included a wins against the Falcons and Niners so we can't say the Saints have turned the corner yet. The Jags have won all their games with the exception of a tight first week loss to the Titans, and getting smacked around by the Colts 2 weeks ago, buts the Colts and the Pats don't really play in the same leagues as everyone else.

  • AB - Saints
  • Eastwood - Jags
  • Squarre - Jags
  • P-Mizz - Jags

Chargers (-7) at Vikings
The Chargers are playing like the Chargers should with 3 wins in a row and the Vikings are 2-5. Those 2 wins have come against the mighty Falcons and the Bears (who they just barely beat by 3). They play an actual team in week 1 and they would be 1-6. The Chargers are scoring a ton of points lately and that trend looks to continue this at Minnesota.

  • AB - Chargers
  • Eastwood - Chargers
  • Squarre - Chargers
  • P-Mizz - Vikings

49ers (+3) at Falcons
The 49ers aren't good, but the Falcons are awful. The Falcons are 4-3 against the spread, while the 49ers are only 2-4-1. That being said, I don't know how the Falcons are favored in any game. Joey Harrington is back in at QB, but does it really matter who plays for this awful team? This game is just begging you take to 49ers and I think you should give in.

  • AB – 49ers
  • Eastwood – 49ers
  • Squarre – 49ers
  • P-Mizz - Falcons

Redskins (-3.5) at Jets
Granted the game is in New York, but this spread seems small. Kellen Clemens is in and Chad Pennington is out at QB for the Jets. Laveranues Coles (42 rec., 473 yds, 6 TD) may not play following his concussion, which obviously hurts the Jets and their ability to score. Coles has 6 of the 12 offensive TDs for the Jets on the year. Neither team is good against the spread, but I have to go with the Skins in this one.

  • AB - Redskins
  • Eastwood - Redskins
  • Squarre - Redskins
  • P-Mizz - Redskins

Seahawks (+1.5) at Browns
Two 4-3 teams battle in Cleveland, but obviously that isn't the important thing. The Browns are 5-2 against the spread and the Seahawks are only 3-4. The Seahawks are coming off back to back wins and a bye (1-1 ATS) and Cleveland has lost 2 of 3 (2-1 ATS). Look for the Seahawks to pull to .500 on the road and win outright.

  • AB - Browns
  • Eastwood - Browns
  • Squarre - Seahawks
  • P-Mizz - Seahawks

Texans (+3) at Raiders
Houston goes on the road this week to battle the Black Hole in Oakland. While both teams have lost three in a row, the Texans’ recent schedule has been particularly brutal, with trips to Jacksonville and San Diego included. But the news gets worse for Houston, as QB Matt Schaub will not start and will be replaced by Sage Rosenfels, who has the greatest name in the NFL. It seems bleak when that’s the only hope you have. Oakland is near the top of the league in interceptions (10) and passing yards allowed per game (178.7). That seems to help the Raiders chances this week because the Texans can’t run the ball (only 80.5 rushing yards per game). Either way, this game will be ugly. Save the Tivo space for the Epic Spectacular in Indy.

  • AB - Raiders
  • Eastwood - Raiders
  • Squarre - Texans
  • P-Mizz - Raiders

Patriots (-6) at Colts
In what will easily be the highest rated game of the season (possibly higher than the Super Bowl), the Epic Spectacular finally arrives. With all that sneering going on, NFL fans have forgotten that the Colts are unbeaten too. Isn’t it weird that the defending Super Bowl champs are flying under the radar? But the juggernaut known as the Pissed Off Patriots have been destroying opponents to the tune of scoring 41 points a game, included the obscene 52-7 drubbing against Washington last week. But shhhh, the Colts have been scoring 32 points a game and their passing defense is #1 in the league. Will that matter against the juggernaut? Brady is having a historic season, and the Colts must pressure him to slow him down. The Colts paltry pass rush may not be up to the task.

  • AB - Pats
  • Eastwood - Pats
  • Squarre - Colts
  • P-Mizz - Pats

Cowboys (-3) at Eagles
The Cowboys come off a bye week and head to Philly where they will be quickly pelted with batteries. Another week goes by and Tony Romo has another girlfriend. Instant celebrity must be nice. The ‘Boys have only lost once (to the Pissed Off Pats), but the Eagles are surging at the right time. They looked completely done a few weeks ago, but after playing well against the Vikings last week, this game looks much better on paper. It also looks like the only other watchable game of the weekend. The Eagles defense is allowing about 17 points per game which is in the top third of the league. But slowing down Dreamboat Romo and his offensive powerhouse will prove difficult.

  • AB - Cowboys
  • Eastwood - Cowboys
  • Squarre - Eagles
  • P-Mizz - Cowboys

Ravens (+9) at Steelers
This week must have been designed by the NFL to focus all attention on the Epic Spectacular in Indy. It seems like every other game (outside of the Cowboys-Eagles) will be boring as hell. The Ravens are bad offensively because they can’t pass the ball (216.7 passing yards per game). But Steve McNair claims he’s ready to tear up the league again after sitting out a few weeks with injuries. No wonder this team can’t pass the ball. This isn’t 2001. Steve McNair and Kyle Boller are both well past their prime. The Steelers however continue to do what they do every year. Play fairly well, and beat someone decent in the playoffs. This game may be much closer than Vegas is giving it because McNair only gets hooked up to the Juvenation Machine once a year. Both teams have excellent defenses, ranking 1st and 2nd in yards per game. No one will score points. It’ll be an awesome game to take a nap to.

  • AB - Ravens
  • Eastwood - Ravens
  • Squarre – Ravens
  • P-Mizz - Ravens

Records ATS

  • Squarre: 11-2
  • P-Mizz: 10-3
  • AB: 7-6
  • Eastwood: 7-6